The effect of behavior changes caused by the covid-19 pandemic on electricity consumptions and feeder loads: a case study on an electricity distribution feeder

The COVID-19 (Sars CoV-2) virus, which emerged in Wuhan city of Hubei province of China in December 2019, affected the whole world in a short time and was declared a global epidemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 11, 2020. After this date, closure measures have been implemented all over the world to prevent the spread of the virus. Due to the provisions taken, there have been changes in electrical energy consumption compared to previous years. In March, April and May 2020, when the restrictions affected human life the most, dynamic changes occurred in energy demand all over the world. This has affected international energy markets, energy production and grid load planning. Although the total electricity consumption in Turkey increased compared to the previous year, there was a decrease in the consumption in the commercial tariff. In this study, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption were analyzed by analyzing the electricity consumption of Turkey and Ýzmir, depending on the tariffs, based on time. A case study was conducted on an electricity distribution feeder to see the impact of COVID-19 on electricity distribution networks. For the case study, an electricity distribution feeder with 99% of the subscriber density in the residential and commercial tariff group was selected. For the feeder, load forecasting was made using artificial neural networks machine learning method according to 2018, 2019 and 2020 data. In the load forecasting study, 75% of the data was selected for learning and 25% for testing. As a result of the study, the actual and forecasted load data of 2020 were compared. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lad of an electricity distribution feeder were investigated. In the study, the performance values of load forecasting were determined mse as 0.0024 and R2 as 0.83.

Covid-19 pandemisinin oluþturduðu davranýþ deðiþikliklerinin elektrik tüketimleri ve fider yükleri üzerindeki etkisi: bir elektrik daðýtým fideri üzerinde vaka çalýþmasý

Aralýk 2019’da Çin’in Hubey eyaletinin Wuhan kentinde ortaya çýkan COVÝD-19 (Sars CoV-2) virüsü kýsa sürede tüm dünyayý etkisi altýna almýþ ve Dünya Saðlýk Örgütü (WHO) tarafýndan 11 Mart 2020 tarihi itibariyle küresel salgýn ilan edilmiþtir. Bu tarihten sonra virüsün yayýlýmý önlemek için tüm dünyada kapanma tedbirleri uygulanmaya baþlanmýþtýr. Getirilen tedbirler nedeniyle elektrik enerjisi tüketiminde önceki yýllara göre deðiþimler yaþanmýþtýr. Kýsýtlamalarýn insan hayatýný en çok etkilediði 2020 yýlý Mart, Nisan ve Mayýs aylarýnda tüm dünyada enerji talebinde dinamik deðiþimler meydana gelmiþtir. Bu durum uluslararasý enerji piyasalarýný, enerji üretimi ve þebeke yük planlamalarýný etkilemiþtir. Türkiye’de toplam elektrik tüketimi bir önceki yýla göre artmasýna raðmen ticarethane tarifesindeki tüketimlerde azalýþ meydana gelmiþtir. Bu çalýþmada, Türkiye ve Ýzmir ilinin elektrik tüketimlerinin tarifeler özelinde zamana baðlý olarak analizi yapýlarak COVÝD-19 salgýnýnýn elektrik tüketimi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiþtir. COVÝD-19’un elektrik daðýtým þebekeleri üzerindeki etkisini görmek için ise bir elektrik daðýtým fideri üzerinde vaka çalýþmasý yapýlmýþtýr. Vaka çalýþmasý için abone yoðunluðunun %99’u mesken ve ticarethane tarife grubunda yer alan bir elektrik daðýtým fideri seçilmiþtir. Fider için 2018, 2019 ve 2020 yýlý verilerine göre yapay sinir aðlarý makine öðrenmesi yöntemi kullanýlarak yük tahmini yapýlmýþtýr. Yapýlan yük tahmin çalýþmasýnda, verilerin %75’i öðrenme için, %25’i ise test için seçilmiþtir. Çalýþma sonucunda 2020 yýlý gerçek ve tahmin yük verileri karþýlaþtýrýlmýþtýr. COVÝD-19 pandemisinin bir elektrik daðýtým fiderinin yükü üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiþtir. Çalýþmada, yük tahminin performans deðerleri mse, 0,0024 ve R2, 0,83 olarak tespit edilmiþtir.