Isýnma amaçlý doðal gaz kullanýmýnýn Erzurum Ýli hava kalitesine etkisinin SO2 ve PM10 parametreleri üzerinden istatiksel bir deðerlendirmesi

Bu çalýþmada Erzurum kent atmosferindeki hava kalitesinin deðiþimi; Erzurum’da hava kirliliðinin ilk kez görülmeye baþlandýðý 1978-1979 kýþ döneminden baþlayarak 2018-2019 dönemine kadar kükürt dioksit (SO2) ve çapý 10 mikrondan küçük partikül madde (PM10) parametreleri kriter olarak alýnmýþ; kent atmosferindeki nispi nem, ortalama sýcaklýk, yaðýþ, rüzgâr yönü ve hýzý gibi meteorolojik parametreler de göz önünde bulundurularak istatistiksel olarak incelenmiþtir. Bu amaçla görünürde iliþkisiz regresyon modellerinden (SUR) yararlanýlmýþtýr. Erzurum kent atmosferinde hava kalitesinin deðiþimini etkileyecek en önemli faktör 2005 yýlýnda kentsel ýsýnma amacýyla kullanýlmaya baþlanan doðal gaz olduðu için bu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlarýn doðal gaz kullanýmý ile iliþkisi belirlenmiþtir. 2005 yýlýnýn ve varsa diðer yýllarýn etkilerinin bir baþka ifade ile yapýsal kýrýlma tarihlerinin belirlenmesi amacýyla testler uygulanmýþtýr. Elde edilen sonuçlar doðal gazýn kentte yaygýnlaþmaya baþlamasýndan sonraki yýl olan 2006 yýlýnýn PM10 modelinde yaklaþýk %75 korelasyon ve 2009 yýlýnýn ise SO2 modelinde %72 korelasyon ile yüksek düzeyde anlamlý önemli bir yapýsal kýrýlma olduðunu göstermiþtir.

A statistical evaluation of the effect of natural gas usage for urban heating on the air quality of Erzurum City via SO2 ve PM10

In this study, the alteration of air quality in the Erzurum urban atmosphere starting from the winter period of 1978-1979, when air pollution began to appear in Erzurum for the first time, until the 2018-2019 period was statistically analyzed by choosing as the criteria parameters sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter of less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10) and taking into account meteorological parameters such as the relative humidity, average temperature, precipitation, wind direction and speed. Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) models have been used for this purpose. Since the most important factor that will affect the change of air quality in the Erzurum urban atmosphere is natural gas, which was started to be used for urban heating in 2005, the relationship between the results obtained from these models and the use of natural gas was determined. In order to determine the effects of 2005 and other years, if any, tests were firstly applied for determining the structural break dates. The results obtained showed that there was a highly significant structural break with a correlation of aproximately 75% in the PM10 model of 2006, the year after the natural gas became widespread in the city, while it was 2009 for the SO2 model with with a correlation of 72%.